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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans improving together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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